Instagram could gain 22% of TikTok’s US ad dollars if a ban occurs. Global bans may ripple, disrupting TikTok’s $20B ad revenue by 2025.
If TikTok gets banned in the US by 2025, Instagram and YouTube will likely emerge as the biggest winners. Instagram could capture 22% of reallocated ad dollars, followed by Facebook with 17% and YouTube at 11%. TikTok’s US ad revenue, expected to hit $22B by 2025, is a lucrative target for competitors. Connected TV and smaller social platforms would divide the remaining ad budgets. This shift could reshape ad strategies for brands targeting TikTok’s engaged audiences.
Global scrutiny is mounting on TikTok, with Canada, the UK, and EU banning it on government devices. The US may go further, demanding TikTok divest its Chinese ownership. Countries like Japan are exploring bans on apps spreading disinformation, while Latin America and Southeast Asia see minimal risk of restrictions due to strong China ties. Even TikTok’s efforts like Project Clover, localizing European data, haven’t reduced security concerns. Broader bans could impact marketers worldwide, forcing pivots to safer platforms.
TikTok’s ad revenue, projected to rise from $3.9B in 2021 to $22B by 2025, makes up 3% of global digital ad spend. A US ban would leave over $10B in ad budgets up for grabs. Meta’s platforms, already trusted by marketers, are well-positioned to absorb the fallout. Meanwhile, smaller players like connected TV services could capture a niche slice. For advertisers, the potential loss of TikTok’s high engagement rates will push them toward safer, established platforms like Instagram and YouTube.
How will Meta and YouTube reshape advertising after TikTok?
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