Amazon drives nearly 50% of U.S. ecommerce growth since 2020, with a projected 41% market share by 2025. Meanwhile, Walmart and others outpace Amazon in growth rates.
U.S. ecommerce sales will hit $1.3T by 2025, with penetration reaching 17%. Growth remains steady, expanding at four times the pace of in-store sales. Gen Z shoppers and digital-first product trends continue to boost online commerce. This stable trajectory highlights the long-term shift toward digital retail, with the pandemic-driven surge leveling off.
Chelsea Zhang (Principal @ Equal Ventures) anaylisis shows that between 2020 and 2023, Amazon drove nearly 50% of U.S. ecommerce growth, adding $135B to its sales. Walmart followed, growing by $22B, contributing 8% of the total growth. Target and eBay struggled, with Target’s growth slowing and eBay losing market share. Instacart showed strong progress in grocery ecommerce but remains small in scale.
Amazon’s ecommerce sales are forecast to reach $540B by 2025, capturing 41% of the U.S. market. Despite slowing growth, Amazon retains its leadership due to its massive scale and continued innovation. The company’s market penetration will grow from 38% in 2020 to 41% by 2025, solidifying its dominance over the digital commerce landscape.
Walmart is expected to outpace Amazon’s growth with a projected 31% increase in ecommerce sales by 2026. Carvana follows with 22%, while Costco and Chewy each expect 18% growth. Target and Best Buy are also investing heavily in digital channels, while eBay lags with only 4% expected growth. Retailers are doubling down on ecommerce to gain ground.
Can rivals catch up to Amazon’s ecommerce dominance?
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